Thursday, October 28, 2004

That Town's Not a Number It's Simply Gone Numb

All the poll/horse race stuff mostly drives me nuts, if for no other reason than I want people to vote, not get discouraged (even Republicans, for I'm a small d democrat more than anything).

That said, I couldn't help but peek at Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 to find out that as of today:
1) Kerry has a tentative, slim Electoral College lead;
2) Kerry doesn't yet have the necessary 270 electors;
3) This election damn well better not get settled in the House of Representatives, for Tom DeLay creeps me out more than Antonin Scalia. (True this distinction is like trying to answer which of my testicles I would prefer to have eaten by rats, but still....)

The site also writes the following, something we shouldn't forget:

Today's Washington Post has an excellent story dealing with the issue of whether the polls are accurate. The basic problem is that the vast majority of people refuse to participate, so the sample is no longer random. Surveying mostly elderly, lonely, or bored people can bias the results. The Post reports that one caller apparently was so fed up with telemarketeers and pollsters that he attached a device to the telephone that made such a loud noise it damaged the pollster's eardrum. Even response rates for exit polls on election day have dropped to 50%. This information goes a long way to explaining why the polls are so erratic this year. But in all fairness, the final 2000 polls weren't so hot either. Eleven of the 15 national polls just before the election predicted Bush would win the popular vote by a margin of 2% to 6%. Ultimately, Gore won it by 0.5%.


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