Wednesday, July 02, 2008

The Dirty South

Don't know if you've checked out FiveThirtyEight over in the links yet, but it's a project by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, in which he turns his astute ability to use and never abuse statistics (that is, he doesn't start a project trying to prove something) toward the 2008 election. It's very fascinating, not just for the numbers but for Silver and his cohorts' ability to write and analyze and not just toss out numbers. So, basically, it's BP for political junkies.

In an entry yesterday Silver runs through some numbers and gets to this brilliantly underwritten passage:

It seems to me that Obama's numbers in states like North Carolina and Georgia are liable to come in within a relatively narrow range. He'll do better than a Democrat like John Kerry did there, with substantial support from blacks (although Schaller is right that African-American turnout has not been particularly low), students, information-sector workers, and new migrants to the region -- as PPP notes, Obama is leading by 6 points among people who have moved to North Carolina from outside the state, but trails by 13 among people who were born and raised there. But where Obama is disliked in the South, he tends to be disliked a lot; his "very unfavorables" tend to be pretty high in the region.

Gee, wonder what it means that "true" Southerners not only don't like the black man, they very unfavorably don't like him?

The more things change, the more the Stars and Bars still fly over the hearts of Dixie.

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6 Comments:

Blogger Marty said...

It's hard to say at this point. I think it'll depend on whether McCain alienates the cracker vote and right wing evangelicals enough so they just sit this one out (A few might vote for Bob Barr). McCain's already got the sizable military vote here. But this is a state that voted out the last democratic governor, Roy Barnes, because he supported changing the old state flag, which was essentially the stars and bars.

4:49 PM  
Blogger M.C. Confrontation said...

I'm back like Bret Favre!!!

I needed an outlet George. I went and got myself banned by the segregationists in San Francisco for merely asking a question. It seems they're not very tolerant up there! Kind of like the Dirty South, I guess, but it turns out my ratings at the Zoo are also "very unfavorable."

But back to the racist card you guys love to pull... does it ever get tired for you? I'm not defending southern racists, because any racist, be (s)he righty, lefty, Yankee, or greycoat, is despicable, but you guys seem to love to harp on the red state stereotype of racism.

Not all conservatives are racist. Don't you agree?

10:24 AM  
Blogger George said...

Not all conservatives are racist, but all racists are conservative.

11:19 AM  
Blogger M.C. Confrontation said...

ha! forgot about bob byrd, no? (i don't care what kind of renunciations he's since made)

i know it's your space, but i feel i should remind you that you show your cards when you make generalizations.

12:37 PM  
Blogger George said...

First, one reason you wear out your welcome is you say the same things over and over, and we've been through the Robert Byrd stuff.

Second, I didn't say Democrat I said conservative.

1:05 PM  
Blogger M.C. Confrontation said...

yeah but you play the racist card over and over again, so aren't we equally guilty?

8:54 AM  

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