The Dirty South
Don't know if you've checked out FiveThirtyEight over in the links yet, but it's a project by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, in which he turns his astute ability to use and never abuse statistics (that is, he doesn't start a project trying to prove something) toward the 2008 election. It's very fascinating, not just for the numbers but for Silver and his cohorts' ability to write and analyze and not just toss out numbers. So, basically, it's BP for political junkies.
In an entry yesterday Silver runs through some numbers and gets to this brilliantly underwritten passage:
It seems to me that Obama's numbers in states like North Carolina and Georgia are liable to come in within a relatively narrow range. He'll do better than a Democrat like John Kerry did there, with substantial support from blacks (although Schaller is right that African-American turnout has not been particularly low), students, information-sector workers, and new migrants to the region -- as PPP notes, Obama is leading by 6 points among people who have moved to North Carolina from outside the state, but trails by 13 among people who were born and raised there. But where Obama is disliked in the South, he tends to be disliked a lot; his "very unfavorables" tend to be pretty high in the region.
Gee, wonder what it means that "true" Southerners not only don't like the black man, they very unfavorably don't like him?
The more things change, the more the Stars and Bars still fly over the hearts of Dixie.
In an entry yesterday Silver runs through some numbers and gets to this brilliantly underwritten passage:
It seems to me that Obama's numbers in states like North Carolina and Georgia are liable to come in within a relatively narrow range. He'll do better than a Democrat like John Kerry did there, with substantial support from blacks (although Schaller is right that African-American turnout has not been particularly low), students, information-sector workers, and new migrants to the region -- as PPP notes, Obama is leading by 6 points among people who have moved to North Carolina from outside the state, but trails by 13 among people who were born and raised there. But where Obama is disliked in the South, he tends to be disliked a lot; his "very unfavorables" tend to be pretty high in the region.
Gee, wonder what it means that "true" Southerners not only don't like the black man, they very unfavorably don't like him?
The more things change, the more the Stars and Bars still fly over the hearts of Dixie.
Labels: Obama
posted by George at 12:02 PM
4 Comments:
It's hard to say at this point. I think it'll depend on whether McCain alienates the cracker vote and right wing evangelicals enough so they just sit this one out (A few might vote for Bob Barr). McCain's already got the sizable military vote here. But this is a state that voted out the last democratic governor, Roy Barnes, because he supported changing the old state flag, which was essentially the stars and bars.
ha! forgot about bob byrd, no? (i don't care what kind of renunciations he's since made)
i know it's your space, but i feel i should remind you that you show your cards when you make generalizations.
First, one reason you wear out your welcome is you say the same things over and over, and we've been through the Robert Byrd stuff.
Second, I didn't say Democrat I said conservative.
yeah but you play the racist card over and over again, so aren't we equally guilty?
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