Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Capitalismos Favorite Boy Child, We Must Apologize

Why I am not an economist, evidence point # a lot (if I were an economist, I could come up with an exact bogus number).... Here's several lines from an LA Times story this morning:

"All of the indicators are that the recession is over with, even in California," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. [His name used to be Quartersburg, but he was downsized.]

UCLA's quarterly regional forecast, scheduled to be released today, comes amid rising optimism among economists nationwide. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Tuesday that the nation had probably exited its worst downturn since the 1930s and that the economy was probably expanding once again.
[Does a double probably work like a double negative?]

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point," he said in remarks at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
[And recession is all about technique, so keep that growling from your hungry tummy down--it disturbs the machinery.]

Hooray! The recession is over! California is no longer a billion Governator hydrogen powered Hummers in debt! The UC and CSU won't be furloughing people while increasing student tuition for an inferior education! Frank McCourt will be giving away free beer with each Andre Ethier walk-off homerun! NBC will be so profitable they will take Jay Leno away again! I won't read a few more paragraphs into the article, which goes on to say....

The state's unemployment rate reached 11.9% in July, well above the national rate of 9.4%. Joblessness in California will continue to rise through the end of 2009, peaking in the fourth quarter at 12.2%, according to UCLA economists, who predict that job growth won't resume until late 2010.

The state's budget woes also will be a major drag. California is spending less on healthcare, education and prisons. It's cutting jobs and furloughing workers. That means less money to stimulate the economy.

The state's recovery will also be hindered by its historic reliance on the housing industry, which created tens of thousands of jobs in construction and financial services during the boom. Now many of those positions have vanished.

Construction employment fell by a third to 633,100 in July from its high of 948,500 in February 2006. The financial services sector, which includes real estate finance, shed 138,600 jobs over the same time period.

See, I can't be an economist as I just don't see how these things add up, and I assume addition is the simplest thing an economist has to do, besides make shit up. Oh, and I can deal with the loss of healthcare, education, and prisons (especially debtors prisons). But let's face it, the "major drag" won't be the same anymore, either, what with Swayze gone.



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