A Post for Sister Suzie, Brother Jon, Martin Luther, Phil and Don
As the country debates what to do about immigration, there's this fascinating study from the Public Policy Institute of California:
California’s labor market has changed dramatically over the past two decades because of rising demand for highly educated workers. Although economic projections for California indicate a continuation of this trend, projections of educational attainment for the future population strongly suggest a mismatch between the level of skills the population is likely to possess and the level of skills that will be needed to meet economic projections.
[...]
To bridge the gap between supply and demand through migration, those with high skills would need to come from other countries. Hence, meeting the demand would require an intensification of current trends: Between 2000 and 2005, for the first time, immigrants to California with a college degree exceeded the number of immigrants who were not high school graduates. Large increases in the number of college graduates in other countries indicate that this trend could continue to intensify but the number of highly educated immigrants to California would still need to more than double to meet projected needs. U.S. immigration law would need to change fairly dramatically, and it seems unlikely that this will happen in the near future. Moreover, increasing global demand for highly skilled labor, including increasing demand in origin countries, makes it even less likely that California could successfully and sufficiently compete for large numbers of highly skilled labor from other countries.
We conclude that it is extremely unlikely that the projected need for highly skilled workers will be met mainly through the increased migration of college-educated workers.
Very interesting--if we don't import college graduates, California's economy is headed for the crapper. Gives the arguments a different spin, that's for sure.
California’s labor market has changed dramatically over the past two decades because of rising demand for highly educated workers. Although economic projections for California indicate a continuation of this trend, projections of educational attainment for the future population strongly suggest a mismatch between the level of skills the population is likely to possess and the level of skills that will be needed to meet economic projections.
[...]
To bridge the gap between supply and demand through migration, those with high skills would need to come from other countries. Hence, meeting the demand would require an intensification of current trends: Between 2000 and 2005, for the first time, immigrants to California with a college degree exceeded the number of immigrants who were not high school graduates. Large increases in the number of college graduates in other countries indicate that this trend could continue to intensify but the number of highly educated immigrants to California would still need to more than double to meet projected needs. U.S. immigration law would need to change fairly dramatically, and it seems unlikely that this will happen in the near future. Moreover, increasing global demand for highly skilled labor, including increasing demand in origin countries, makes it even less likely that California could successfully and sufficiently compete for large numbers of highly skilled labor from other countries.
We conclude that it is extremely unlikely that the projected need for highly skilled workers will be met mainly through the increased migration of college-educated workers.
Very interesting--if we don't import college graduates, California's economy is headed for the crapper. Gives the arguments a different spin, that's for sure.
posted by George at 3:27 PM
3 comments
